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The tip of Main League Baseball’s 2022 season is shortly approaching with one month left to play.
Which of the present contenders shall be headed to the playoffs come October? Which groups could have narrowly missed the reduce? How will the division races form up? Who will attain the Fall Traditional? Who’re the favorites to win the MVP and Cy Younger awards? On the finish of his historic season for the New York Yankees, will Aaron Judge break Roger Maris’ American League file for many dwelling runs in a single season? And what else would possibly occur down the stretch?
To debate what the ultimate month of the common season would possibly deliver, we requested a panel of 17 ESPN baseball specialists a number of the recreation’s largest questions, masking September and past. We additionally requested quite a few them to clarify their solutions — significantly those that went towards the grain.
Under, you will discover our picks for the postseason, main awards and extra, together with a number of shocking solutions and a few daring predictions about what’s subsequent.
110: 6 votes
111: 4
112: 2
109: 2
107: 2
106: 1
The very best variety of wins picked was 112. Take us by means of how they will get there. Attending to 112 wins is hardly daring. It means they will proceed to play at exactly the identical stage, simply shy of a .700 profitable share. Why would the Dodgers let up? They simply bought Clayton Kershaw again. Subsequent is Blake Treinen. It is the deepest group in baseball. Freddie Freeman desires a batting title. Tony Gonsolin desires a Cy Younger. The schedule is simply robust if the Padres play higher, which they have not, and the ultimate six video games are dwelling towards the Rockies. The Dodgers are pushed. They do not let up. Man, 112 wins is perhaps conservative. — Eric Karabell
You have been one among 5 to choose 110 wins. Why’s that the magic quantity? That is about what the Dodgers’ win tempo is at this level. It is truly slightly above that, however I assume my colleagues interpret the dynamic much like how I see it, which is that the Dodgers will doubtless have the No. 1 seed within the Nationwide League clinched with at the very least every week to go within the season. So, they could spend a time period easing up on the accelerator and shifting their full focus to getting everyone on top of things for the postseason. So, yeah, the Dodgers seem to be “solely” a 110-win group as a result of they could be capable of coast on the finish of the common season. Not a nasty place to be in. — Bradford Doolittle
Table of Contents
Who would be the No. 1 seed within the AL: the Yankees or Astros?
Houston Astros: 17
New York Yankees: 0
Why are the Astros the overwhelming favourite right here? There’s a lot to love about their pitching. They maintain the ball within the ballpark, so it’s arduous to quick-strike them with runners on. It’d come all the way down to controlling the “slug,” they usually have achieved it in a small ballpark (given up the fewest HRs in MLB). Spectacular. This with an explosive offense when they’re in sync. And Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker bought scorching. They’ve additionally bought a two-way catcher on the commerce deadline in Christian Vazquez. Look out. — Doug Glanville
You have got the Astros securing the No. 1 seed however the Yankees showing within the World Collection. Inform us why. The Yankees confronted their fair proportion of accidents, however the lack of consistency within the lineup has been on the coronary heart of the group’s droop within the second half. Joey Gallo carried the brunt of this criticism for the group in a lot of the primary half, however now that he is taking part in for the Dodgers, the highlight turns to Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks, who haven’t lived as much as expectations on the plate. The struggles of the trio have compelled the Yankees right into a place the place they should rely on rookies reminiscent of Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera heading into an important run down the stretch. Aaron Choose cannot single-handedly carry this lineup deep into October. — Joon Lee
The 2022 World Collection matchup shall be … ?
AL
Houston Astros: 11
New York Yankees: 3
NL
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Astros-Dodgers was our most-picked matchup. Why will these two groups meet in October? One among these is simple: The Dodgers are far and away the perfect group in baseball, and nearly as good because the Mets and Braves could be, and as a lot of a menace because the Cardinals and Padres might pose, and as up within the air as quick sequence truly are, choosing towards a group that’s on tempo to win 113 video games is a scorching take for hot-taking’s sake. The AL is a unique beast. The Astros are the category of the league, sure, and amongst their wonderful rotation, lineup, bullpen and gloves, they present no obvious weak spot. And but the distinction between them and a full-strength Yankees group — which admittedly looks like a pipe dream nowadays — is not sufficiently big to counsel Houston is infallible. That is, very merely, a chalk decide — and one, as October nears and groups warmth up or quiet down, that is topic to vary. — Jeff Passan
Our runners-up in every league have been the Yankees and Mets. You picked each. What makes you assume they’re the groups to beat? It is much less that I believe both is the “group to beat” than that baseball has a level of randomness to its postseason. It is often a handful of groups in both league that take advantage of logical sense as its champions (each actually qualify), and typically pure baseball storylines discover a approach — Subway Collection are so uncommon, and with the Mets now the larger story of the 2 groups in New York, it simply feels proper for a rematch 22 years within the making. The Mets make the simpler case amongst potential league champions — Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer shall be robust to beat in a brief sequence — and as for the Yankees, I really feel like Choose is this sort of man who might clutch a sequence and single-handedly steer his group. Having Gerrit Cole the ace present up, too, could have quite a bit to say concerning the Yankees’ October probabilities. — Tristan Cockroft
There have been seven totally different groups chosen as potential World Collection contenders, and also you have been the lone Rays voter. What does that quantity say about this season? It means solely one among us shall be proper! And that the Yankees’ two-month slide means the AL is broad open. I will admit, a part of my confidence within the Rays is that I picked them to succeed in the World Collection within the preseason. That, admittedly, was earlier than the Rays’ unending record of accidents all through the season. By some means, they’ve not solely hung in there, however they now have a professional probability to steal the AL East from the Yankees — after being down by as many as 15.5 video games. The Shane McClanahan damage is actually problematic, however the Rays nonetheless have Corey Kluber, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, a deep bullpen (try Jason Adam‘s stats) and Tyler Glasnow‘s doable return. Offense? The Rays discover a option to scrape throughout sufficient runs. None of that is fairly, however it works. — David Schoenfield
The 2022 AL and NL MVPs shall be … ?
AL
Aaron Choose: 17
NL
Paul Goldschmidt: 15
Mookie Betts: 1
Choose was unanimous amongst our voters; what makes him a standout within the MVP race? He stands out as a result of he isn’t JUST a house run hitter. He leads the league in walks, has a excessive batting common primarily based on a 61% arduous hit price — and he isn’t even main the league in strikeouts. He has been a whole participant AND he would possibly hit over 60 dwelling runs. — Jesse Rogers
Why does Goldschmidt deserve this award? Goldschmidt needs to be the MVP as a result of he leads the league in just about each vital offensive class, and he’s a Gold Glove defensive first baseman. He has a professional shot to turn into the primary NL participant since Joe Medwick in 1937 to win the Triple Crown. And he is doing it for a group that’s more likely to win its division. — Tim Kurkjian
Solely two folks did not vote for Goldschmidt, and also you selected Betts to win it over him. Why? He has an uphill climb, little doubt, however I used to be working below a reasonably easy premise: When Betts is taking part in on the prime of his recreation, no person within the NL is best. Betts has been mainly himself since getting back from a rib damage in July, however he took issues to a different stage in August, ending with an OPS of 1.081. Goldschmidt, Arenado and Manny Machado can match Betts’ defensive prowess however not his affect on the bases, and so it would not be a shock to see Betts overtake the lead in fWAR by the top of the common season. It is a sleeper decide, certain, however given the way in which Betts has been hitting currently, I would not put it previous him. — Alden Gonzalez
The Cy Youngs will go to … ?
AL
Justin Verlander: 13
Dylan Cease: 2
NL
Sandy Alcantara: 16
Aaron Nola: 1
What makes Verlander’s and Alcantara’s Cy Younger campaigns so dominant? On the danger of being labeled the oldest of olds, I’ll defer to earned-run common to reply the query. Verlander’s 1.84 is the perfect in baseball. Alcantara’s 2.36 is second greatest within the NL – and he has thrown 25% extra innings than the man forward of him. Their anticipated ERAs and Fielding Unbiased Pitching figures, although, illustrate that neither’s ERA is a few defense-driven mirage. Verlander’s grip on the award is much extra tenuous due to his calf damage, which leaves a lane for Dylan Stop – he the two.13 ERA in 156 innings, with Verlander having thrown 152 – to thieve it. Barring a slew of begins like his final one by which he allowed six runs in 5 innings, Alcantara’s lead is sufficiently big that not even Zac Gallen‘s 41.1-inning scoreless streak is way of a menace. Alcantara’s 190.2 innings are 20 away from anybody else’s, his 4 full video games are greater than each different group and he is unquestionably the unanimous selection — Passan
Alcantara bought each vote however yours. Make the case for Nola. I had it as a tossup between Nola and Alcantara, however I leaned to Nola as a result of I believe he’ll shut slightly higher. Nola’s ERA estimators, strikeout price and stroll price are all higher, however these are extra predictive of future outcomes than reviewing who has been higher to this point. Alcantara’s precise ERA is best and the Cy is usually, if not utterly, a backward-looking award, so outcomes matter. He is additionally thrown 20 extra innings than Nola. Nola begins Tuesday to shut that hole (and match on complete video games began), he’ll be in a pennant race down the stretch, and I believe he’ll outperform Alcantara sufficient to edge him out ultimately. — Kiley McDaniel
You voted for Ohtani. Why does somebody apart from Verlander deserve this award? Ohtani is basically having a greater all-around season than he did in 2021, and it would be a disgrace to see him shut out on awards just because Choose would possibly cross Maris, whereas guys like Verlander and Stop pitched slightly bit extra typically than he did. Is Ohtani for the Cy actually that large a stretch? His WAR is barely behind that of both Stop or Verlander — the latter is on the injured record, offering a possibility for that all-important innings pitched hole to shut — and has a greater FIP than both. I believe it is a nearer award race than most do. Ohtani has been excellent over the previous three months (1.87 ERA, 110 Ks in his previous 13 begins), and he is lastly beginning to pitch usually on 5 days’ relaxation. Possibly the writers actually will make this an only-pitching-stats matter — and arguably that is what they need to do, by the award’s definition — but when this race is razor skinny come Recreation 162, would possibly his two-way standing present a unconscious benefit? We will see. — Cockroft
What number of dwelling runs will Choose hit?
62: 9
59: 2
61: 2
60: 2
64: 1
63: 1
We had a majority vote that Choose would attain 62, breaking Maris’ file of 61. Why do you assume he’ll do it? Choose will hit 62 as a result of he has had a terrific season, he is a greater hitter than he has ever been, he’s the strongest man within the recreation and, for some cause, he isn’t being pitched round. Additionally, there’s some magic concerned with No. 60. Ruth. Maris. Choose. And Choose has had a magical season. — Kurkjian
You stated Choose will hit 64, which was our highest complete. Inform us how he’ll get there. All through the course of his profession, Choose has been comparatively constant month to month with regards to dwelling run manufacturing, and his relative consistency has been the spine of the Yankees’ lineup all through this season. Because it at the moment stands, Choose is on tempo to hit 63 dwelling runs, which has not been skewed with one outlier month through the season. With the Yankees needing to show issues round, I believe Choose will proceed his dwelling run march on the tempo he is been in any respect season lengthy. — Lee
Who would be the wild-card groups within the AL?
Seattle Mariners: 17
Toronto Blue Jays: 15
Tampa Bay Rays: 13
New York Yankees: 3
Our most-picked groups have been the Mariners, Blue Jays and Rays, and also you had all three. What makes them the favorites? That trio has held these spots for therefore lengthy that it is arduous to keep in mind that these spots are literally nonetheless in play. There is a hole in run differential between Seattle, Toronto and Tampa Bay and the subsequent tier of contenders, reminiscent of Baltimore, Minnesota/Cleveland and (I suppose) Chicago. The standings are shut sufficient that I would not need to guess my home on the race remaining established order, however all issues thought-about, that looks like the more than likely consequence. These are stable groups which have constructed as much as win now. — Doolittle
What situation would result in the Yankees ending up on this place? The thought appeared ridiculous a month in the past, however with every passing sequence it turns into extra lifelike that the Yankees’ late-season collapse will conclude with them opening the postseason within the wild-card spherical. They hit Labor Day with a five-game lead over the Rays, greater than 10 video games fewer than it was on July 8. They misplaced two of three to the Rays over the weekend and face them for 3 extra this weekend. They journey to Toronto to play the rejuvenated Blue Jays — winners of seven of eight who now sit simply 5.5 video games behind the Yankees — on the finish of September. The whole lot is trending down: Andrew Benintendi is perhaps out for the season; Matt Carpenter, who helped gasoline the group’s pre-August surge, is perhaps additionally; Aroldis Chapman’s tattoo an infection gummed up the gears within the bullpen. The Jays and Rays play one another 9 — 9! — extra occasions this season, and if a type of groups dominates the opposite, the stress on the Yankees shall be ramped up. A complete collapse would take a wild sequence of occasions, however it has taken a number of wild turns to succeed in this level. What appeared unattainable is now at the very least conceivable. — Keown
You have been one among three votes for the Orioles. How do you assume they will do it? The identical approach they have been doing it since early July: sufficient offense, simply sufficient beginning pitching, good protection and a shutdown bullpen. Oh, and now toss in rookie call-up Gunnar Henderson so as to add a spark to the lineup (he is already began at three totally different infield positions and hit fifth within the lineup). The Orioles have been nearly as good as any group within the AL the previous two months, and with a bunch of head-to-head video games left towards the Blue Jays, they’ll ship a knockout blow to Toronto. — Schoenfield
Will the Braves or Mets win the NL East?
New York Mets: 15
What has made the Mets so dominant this season? The depth and expertise on the roster. Each Francisco Lindor and Edwin Diaz admitted at factors that they struggled with the transition to New York, however issues have clicked for each of them, whereas Scherzer has continued to seem like a future Corridor of Famer. Certain, deGrom hasn’t been wholesome this season, however the group has been in a position to make up for that with depth within the rotation from Chris Bassitt to Taijuan Walker, whereas the lineup has seen contributions up and down from Brandon Nimmo to Starling Marte to Jeff McNeil to Mark Canha. — Lee
But, you’ve the Braves stealing the division. Why? Sure, Timmy Trumpet sounded unbelievable the opposite evening at Citi Discipline, the place there’s such an amazing vitality nowadays. Proprietor Steve Cohen’s membership is doing every part the previous Mets did not — and it has been a pleasure for the group’s long-suffering followers. That being stated, let’s examine them absolutely shed the “usual Mets” label by staying wholesome and holding off the defending champion Braves, two issues they could not do final 12 months. Then, possibly, it will be time to actually imagine. — Matt Marrone
Who will win the AL Central?
How did the Guardians find yourself on this place? Cleveland has good steadiness, can push the envelope on the bases and hasn’t made as many self-defeating errors that a variety of younger groups make. It is only a stable group, with a youthful roster, in a weak division. It would not damage to have Jose Ramirez main the way in which whereas skills in Minnesota — reminiscent of Byron Buxton — or Chicago — reminiscent of Luis Robert — are out and in of the lineup. — Rogers
Why do you assume the Twins will take the title? Geez. It is a decide I make with no robust diploma of conviction, which makes it a hunch, and I hate to defend these. Anyway, I suppose Minnesota strikes me as a membership that has truly underachieved regardless of being close to the highest of the division all season, whereas Cleveland is perhaps taking part in a tad bit over its head. The Guardians are baseball’s youngest group, and the Twins have quite a few key contributors who’ve a “been there, achieved that” facet to their careers. Flip a coin and I might defend it both approach. As for the White Sox, it is arduous to know what to say about them. Each time it looks like it is time to write them off, they reel off a number of wins on the similar time the Twins and Guardians hit a skid. However we have seen this 12 months’s White Sox flop within the face of prosperity too typically for me to choose them at this level.Nevertheless it’s actually shut — Doolittle
And also you have been one of many few who selected the White Sox. Why Chicago? I, like many, spent your entire 12 months ready for the White Sox to get going and have been totally disenchanted all through, so I actually do not love this decide. At this level, they’re merely a below-average group, as illustrated by their subpar run differential. However they’ve far and away probably the most expertise and depth in that division, and people issues generally tend of profitable out over an extended season. They’re due a scorching month, maybe extra so than another group. And it is perhaps September. — Gonzalez
What number of profession dwelling runs will Albert Pujols end with?
700: 5
699: 4
698: 4
697: 3
701: 1
Pujols has been on a tear currently, and also you assume he’ll attain that legendary 700 quantity. How will he get there? Pujols will hit 700 homers as a result of, in some methods, he has been the perfect particular person story of the season. I believed he had no shot at 700 when the season started, however he simply completed a 34-game stretch with a .387 common; the final time he did that was 2008. There may be future at work right here. Seven hundred on the ultimate day of his regular-season profession appears applicable. — Kurkjian
You have been one among a number of folks to say he’ll end shy of the 700 membership. Why? Let me preface this by saying that betting towards Pujols to do something is a idiot’s errand. His price stats in August have been the perfect in all of baseball — and he whacked eight dwelling runs. So who’s to say he cannot hit six extra? Effectively, his final month with at the very least six dwelling runs earlier than the newest got here in August 2016. He hit 5 homers in a month eight occasions within the six years in between, so he was shut. It is clear supervisor Oli Marmol has found out the correct occasions to deploy him — Pujols is hitting .370/..412/.790 towards left-handed pitchers this 12 months — however that is extra a wager on historical past than the person himself. And a wager I hope I lose. — Passan
Make one daring prediction concerning the ultimate stretch
Within the American League …
The Blue Jays and Orioles will enter the ultimate day of the season tied for the ultimate wild-card spot. Cavan Biggio homers within the ninth inning at Baltimore to provide the Jays the lead and Jordan Romano saves it for the win. Then, the Jays beat the Guardians and Yankees earlier than dropping to Houston within the American League Championship Collection. — Karabell
The Orioles, with 15 of 27 video games left at dwelling and a 39-27 file at Camden Yards this season, journey the simplest schedule within the AL East to the unlikeliest (non-COVID-19 season) playoff look in at the very least a decade. — Passan
The White Sox will discover a option to win the AL Central. — Gonzalez
Within the Nationwide League …
The Brewers catch the Phillies for the final wild-card spot, whereas San Diego sweats it out and barely sneaks in. — McDaniel
The Padres soften down for the second straight season and miss the playoffs, dropping to the Phillies on the head-to-head tiebreaker (the Phillies took 4 of seven conferences), resulting in utter chaos as many followers turn into conscious of the elimination of the “Recreation 163” tiebreaker. Fortunately, this leads to sufficient outrage that MLB rightly reinstates the normal tiebreaker for 2023. — Cockroft
As for particular person gamers …
Choose hits two dwelling runs on the final day of the season to complete with a file 62. — Schoenfield
Whereas Choose’s chase for 60 will, rightfully, dominate dialogue over the ultimate month, 5 further gamers will get to at the very least 40 dwelling runs this season. The lesson? Even in a season by which a lot time has been spent speaking concerning the decline of offense, the most important sluggers within the recreation are nonetheless thriving. — Dan Mullen
Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin, who sits at an MLB-leading 17 losses on the season, is not going to attain 20. — Kurkjian
Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz’s walk-up track “Narco,” which has gone viral in current weeks, shall be streamed over 1 billion occasions by the top of the season. — Glanville
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