Even though the baseball season is still two months from Opening Day (as long as the MLB Lockout is resolved), that does not mean we can figure out how to be successful at betting on baseball. Today, we will discuss a few ways to become a better bettor when wagering on baseball so the bankroll can continue to climb.
One way to stay involved in wagering is to check out the NFL odds as football is entering their playoffs, and there is a lot of money to be taken. Make sure to step up and do the work to reap the rewards.
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There is no player in a team sport that will affect the outcome of a game more than the starting pitcher in a baseball game. For example, if the Yankees face the Twins and New York has Gerrit Cole on the mound, there is a big advantage. Not only because Cole is one of the best pitchers in the sport but because he is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his three career starts against Minnesota.
Understanding a pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses will help as some pitchers struggle to keep the ball in the park and hope there are no runners on base when it happens. Other pitchers struggle with control and cannot find a groove with their offspeed pitches at certain times. Once we can figure out exactly what those strengths and weaknesses are, it makes betting baseball a whole lot easier.
Even with the variance in MLB lineups throughout the 162-game regular season, some lineups have great splits. One example of this is the Baltimore Orioles. They finished with a .681 OPS against right-handed pitchers while they also had a .749 OPS against southpaw pitchers. Knowing that some lineups have huge swings in their numbers depending on different factors will help make us more successful in betting baseball.
This should not come as a shocker, but if you are one of the best teams in the sport, there will be many wins there. One team that this could apply to is the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they finished 106-56 during the 2021 regular season, based on an incredible roster that they were able to construct. Having elite starting pitchers like Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer for the stretch run on the mound and guys like Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Trae Turner. When you put a lot of high-level baseball players on a team, they will win a lot of games.
Incredible lineups will drive in many runs, while incredible pitching is going to limit the number of runs scored against them. Understanding which teams can do well based on health, the number of consecutive games played, and other factors can help make well-informed wagers.
So a starting pitcher will throw around 100 pitches in a start, but with how it goes in today’s game, that is usually around five innings. If the starter goes five innings, that means the bullpen is responsible for the final 12 outs of the game. The San Francisco Giants had a solid bullpen crew during the regular season as they finished with an MLB-best 2.99 reliever ERA.
Some teams have a great bullpen like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, etc. That helps close the game out and keep the offense in the game or extend the lead. Bullpens in the 2020s will have a few high-end guys that need to get high-intensity outs where the game can swing on the outcome of their appearance, and knowing which teams have those pitchers (and their availability for the game) will help us out.
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