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The NFL season kicked off in earnest Thursday evening with the defending Tremendous Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams falling to the Buffalo Bills 31-10. It was the primary significant sport motion for followers — and bettors — however now the actual enjoyable begins. Sunday’s Week 1 includes a full slate of 14 video games to doubtlessly wager on. There are storylines galore this weekend, with Russell Wilson dealing with off in opposition to his former staff on Monday Night time Soccer, an NFL-record 10 dwelling groups taking part in the function of underdog, a Buccaneers-Cowboys rematch and far, rather more.
In the event you’re seeking to make some bets, you have come to the best place. Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Info’s Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz present insights into the video games and supply their ideas and picks.
Be aware: Traces from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case indicated.
Table of Contents
What’s your largest betting storyline coming into Week 1?
Schatz: My largest storyline coming into Week 1 is the way in which the NFL has gotten extra condensed than in earlier years. Soccer Outsiders numbers, at the least, recommend a league during which the distinction between the perfect and worst groups is smaller than ordinary. A part of the explanation for that is all that big-name participant motion from this previous offseason, with the perfect groups shedding expertise primarily to lower-rated groups. (Von Miller going from the Rams to the Payments is an exception.) Since 2011, Week 1 has averaged 2.5 video games with a line over seven factors. This yr, there is just one such line, Indianapolis (-8) at Houston … and our preseason projections recommend taking the underdog in that sport.
Kezirian: I agree with Aaron in that the NFL betting market is tighter than ever. So once we evaluate Tom Brady and Invoice Belichick’s legendary ATS (in opposition to the unfold) run to that of Invoice Walsh and Joe Montana from the Nineteen Eighties, it’s virtually apples and oranges. It is only a totally different (betting) world now. Nonetheless, Week 1 is nowhere near a solidified market and might throw a number of curveballs, very like we noticed final yr with a report 9 underdogs profitable outright. So I might say that big unknown is that this week’s largest storyline, particularly with many of the sizable favorites on the street.
Moody: Russell Wilson’s skill to succeed beneath heart for the Denver Broncos in opposition to his former staff in prime time with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy in an offense constructed round his strengths is a storyline I will be watching intently. Throughout his Seattle Seahawks teaching profession, Pete Carroll is 19-8-1 in opposition to the unfold as a house underdog. It’d come as a shock, however Geno Smith is 6-3 in opposition to the unfold as a starter and residential underdog. Week 1’s Monday Night time Soccer sport will probably be intriguing from a betting perspective as a result of Wilson is taken into account an MVP candidate and the Broncos are within the Tremendous Bowl dialog.
Marks: I agree with Eric. Wilson returning to Seattle to face his former staff is the story of Week 1. I like Denver -6.5; #RunDontWalk earlier than it jumps as much as 7 or 7.5 earlier than kickoff! One other prime storyline for me is that I do not perceive the love affair many analysts have for Trey Lance. Lance has little or no soccer expertise, together with dealing with subpar competitors in faculty. I simply do not imagine he is able to win video games within the NFL. And the 49ers are a staff that’s constructed to win proper now! San Francisco renegotiating Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contract, together with Lance not being voted a staff captain, screams hassle within the Bay. The Bears (+7) and Lance INT (+120) are value taking part in.
Snellings: I am all around the plethora of superstars coming into Week 1 with one thing to show and favorable matchups. Patrick Mahomes has spent the summer time listening to about how he’ll wrestle with out Tyreek Hill, whereas Kyler Murray had a observe/unfollow social gathering along with his staff earlier than signing an enormous extension that has folks publicly questioning him. I believe each placed on a present and that Kansas City Chiefs–Arizona Cardinals sport goes over. There is no telling what Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, recent off lacking the playoffs and missing a contract extension, would possibly do in opposition to the Jets. The Titans’ Derrick Henry would possibly rush for 200 yards in his wholesome return in opposition to the Giants. Aaron Rodgers will probably be anxious to point out that he can nonetheless lead the Packers to victory with out Davante Adams, which makes me like Inexperienced Bay even in opposition to a tricky Vikings squad. Virtually throughout the board, I will be discovering the elite gamers and backing them and their groups in Week 1.
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There are an NFL-record 10 dwelling underdogs. Which one do you want probably the most? What number of do you suppose will win?
Fulghum: I do not like hardly any of them to win outright. If I needed to choose the most certainly dwelling ‘canine to win it will be the Detroit Lions (+4 vs. Eagles) or Minnesota Vikings (+1.5 vs. Packers). In the end, I believe two to a few of the 9 taking part in on Sunday/Monday win outright. Nonetheless, I believe a number of of those dwelling ‘canines present some worth ATS — particularly dwelling underdogs in Week 1 division matchups. It might be scary to guess on the Colts and Falcons in opposition to superior competitors, however since 2014, underdogs in Week 1 divisional matchups are 28-9-2 ATS (76%). Simply one thing to think about.
Fortenbaugh: A little bit of a cop-out right here as a result of it is the most affordable dwelling underdog on the board, however I would again Minnesota to win outright. Inexperienced Bay is shedding roughly 30% of its receiving manufacturing from final season with Adams becoming a member of the Raiders, and I believe it could take a number of video games for this offense to search out its groove. Minnesota performs significantly better — particularly on the defensive facet of the ball — at dwelling than on the street. The splits are dramatic.
Dolan: I must choose the Cardinals +6, given how a lot this line has moved. The Chiefs have been -3 after which received as excessive as -6.5 during the last couple of days. The Cardinals usually play higher to start out off the season, as we have seen the previous two seasons. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 since 2019, 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in opposition to nonconference groups since 2021. Kansas Metropolis continues to be deadly with Mahomes and Andy Reid, however I might somewhat take the 6 factors on this spot given how a lot the road has moved.
Final yr’s opener was Buccaneers-Cowboys and was a basic. We now have the rematch a yr later within the Sunday prime time. The Bucs are a 2.5-point favourite on the street (complete 50.5). What do you want?
Fulghum: I just like the beneath within the 2022 model of this matchup. Each groups have taken huge hits to their offensive rosters. The Cowboys have misplaced the next gamers from final yr’s No. 1-ranked offense both via commerce, free company, damage or retirement: WR Amari Cooper, WR Cedrick Wilson, LT Tyron Smith, RT La’el Collins. For the Bucs: G Ali Marpet, G Alex Cappa, C Ryan Jensen, G Aaron Stinnie, WR Antonio Brown, TE Rob Gronkowski and doubtlessly WR Chris Godwin coming off ACL surgical procedure. I am sorry, that is simply means an excessive amount of. Plus each groups in the intervening time can tout a transparent power on the defensive facet of the ball.
Fortenbaugh: Beneath 50.5. Dangerous offensive strains don’t journey properly within the Nationwide Soccer League. This matchup options not one, however two suspect offensive strains. Which means it is going to be a grind making an attempt to not solely set up the run, however holding up in move safety on a constant foundation as properly.
Kezirian: The beneath is my favourite play of Week 1. Each offensive strains have skilled vital accidents. Tampa Bay will be unable to purchase Brady time to throw deep, and thus he might want to matriculate the offense down the sphere. And Dallas was dealt a big blow with Smith’s accidents. The eight-time Professional Bowler has missed 20 video games over the previous two seasons, and his absence has a direct affect. With out him, the Dallas offense averaged .7 yards much less per rush and .7 yards much less per move try. The sack price additionally will increase from 4.2% to six.2%.
Moody: Like lots of my colleagues, I just like the beneath. The Buccaneers’ final eight video games in opposition to NFC groups have hit the beneath. 5 of the Cowboys’ final six video games in opposition to the Buccaneers have gone beneath the entire. Tampa Bay ought to cowl the two.5-point unfold. The Buccaneers’ offense is loaded with expertise, whereas the Cowboys lack playmakers outdoors of CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. The offensive line additional complicates Dallas’ scenario. By pressuring Dak Prescott early and sometimes, the Buccaneers’ defensive position might disrupt the Cowboys’ passing sport.
Marks: I nonetheless can’t imagine the Cowboys aren’t favored at dwelling — in prime time — in opposition to a Bucs staff that may be a shell of themselves. The Bucs offensive line is a large number with Ryan Jenson and Aaron Stinnie injured, Ali Marpet gone, and Tristan Wirfs is coping with an indirect damage. Brady is horrible beneath strain (44.8% completion proportion final season when pressured). There are accidents to the Bucs’ WRs, Gronk is just not coming to the rescue, and Brady took an 11-day break from coaching camp to cope with private points. Micah Parsons begins his DPOY tour on Sunday evening. Give me the Cowboys on the ML (+120) and Parsons with a sack.
1:46
Subject Yates breaks down how the Davante Adams commerce will have an effect on Aaron Rodgers’ inventory in fantasy.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (-1.5, 47) are in Minnesota for his or her first sport with out Davante Adams. Adams and the Raiders (+3, 52) face the Los Angeles Chargers. How do you see each video games?
Schatz: I believe Packers-Vikings is a surprisingly even matchup, so I will take the Vikings to stun followers with an early win and canopy. Our projections have the 2 groups neck-and-neck for the season, predicting a rebound for the Vikings on each offense (Kirk Cousins may be very constant in his good-not-greatness) and protection (the place they need to have rather more move rush than final season). I am much less excited in regards to the Packers’ protection than standard knowledge, as a result of the Packers have not had a superb protection for years, and it’ll take a extremely good yr from these rookies to show it round.
I believe Chargers-Raiders goes to be an incredible matchup, and the Chargers are actually going to overlook J.C. Jackson within the secondary. Regardless of that absence, I’ll be contrarian and recommend that my guess on this sport could be to go beneath 52. The Chargers play at a slower tempo than you in all probability anticipate, and final yr the primary matchup between these groups was not as high-scoring as you suppose it was. (It went beneath the quantity, which was coincidentally additionally 52.)
Marks: I’ve the Vikings profitable the NFC North. New head coach Kevin O’Connell has a plethora of expertise at his disposal, and I am unable to wait to see it unleashed. Cousins is without doubt one of the most underrated QBs within the league, and this might probably be his best season. On the defensive facet of the ball, Za’Darius Smith has beef with the Packers group and plans to take it out on Rodgers alongside a wholesome Danielle Hunter. Rodgers will probably be with out Adams, probably Alan Lazard, and he might need to depend on a corps of rookie vast receivers. Give me the Vikings at dwelling with the factors (+1.5) and Aaron Jones over receiving props.
Moody: The NFC North energy hierarchy might change in 2022, and the Vikings would possibly fill the void. O’Connell, previously of the Rams, will carry a pass-heavy offense to Minnesota, which ought to check the Packers protection in Week 1. The Vikings have a 32-17 report at dwelling since 2016, the second-best dwelling report within the division over that span behind the Packers and the seventh-best within the league. Up to now, the Vikings have completed properly in opposition to the unfold when they’re underdogs at dwelling. In Week 1, I am backing them.
The AFC West is loaded this season, and we get to see two of the groups face off in opposition to one another within the first week of the season. Los Angeles’ protection was upgraded in a giant means this offseason, however the Raiders, who ranked sixth in passing yards per sport final season even with out Davante Adams, might pose a problem. Will probably be troublesome for the Chargers to defend Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Since that is wanting like a high-scoring sport, I am leaning towards the over.
Snellings: Although I just like the Vikings this season, I will go along with the Packers to win a low-scoring sport within the opener. Whereas all the eye is on Adams’ departure and the dearth of brand-name receivers in Inexperienced Bay this yr, the Packers quietly have one of many strongest 1-2 punches at operating again within the NFL in Jones and AJ Dillon. And whereas the Vikings’ move rush must be higher, their run protection was weak final season. They allowed the eighth-most speeding yards within the NFL final season and completed within the backside third in fantasy factors allowed to opposing operating backs as a composite measure of how opposing operating video games did in opposition to them. I anticipate Rodgers and the Packers to lean on that run sport and their protection and grind out a win.
The Chargers come into this season feeling like a staff of future. I’m excessive on the Raiders on the season, however I really feel just like the Chargers must be higher on either side of the ball. The Raiders’ offense is powerful sufficient to place factors on the board to problem, however that ought to push the complete sport over with the Chargers overlaying.
What are the three most vital issues that our analytics say (FPI)?
Packers (-1.5) at Vikings. FPI is all in on the Packers — it makes them Tremendous Bowl favorites — and that is the primary actual check to see how Inexperienced Bay fares with out Adams. It is value noting, although, that Inexperienced Bay is not simply presupposed to be a robust offensive staff; their protection ranks third in FPI score too. Plus, final season the Packers have been awfully profitable within the common season regardless of taking part in most of it with out three of its finest six gamers: Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. Whereas well being stays a query, it is attainable they’re going to have all three again Sunday. — Walder
FPI prediction: Packers by 4.6
Cardinals (+6) vs. Chiefs. Identical to the Packers, the Chiefs are a famous person quarterback-led staff with a superb offense that simply misplaced its begin vast receiver. In contrast to the Packers, the Chiefs are weak on protection. The staff lacks an outdoor move rush, and FPI estimates they’re at present the seventh-worst protection within the NFL. FPI sees Arizona as roughly common; although the way in which final season ended left a poor last impression, they nonetheless have an above common quarterback. That is sufficient, in FPI’s thoughts, to maintain this inside a area objective for Arizona at dwelling. — Walder
FPI prediction: Chiefs by 1.3
Bears (+7) vs. 49ers. That is actually all about Trey Lance, as a result of FPI has completely no love for the Bears; it thinks Chicago is the worst staff within the league! What it isn’t shopping for is the belief that the 49ers will simply be good with a digital unknown at quarterback. And an unknown at QB interprets not solely to a variety of outcomes, but additionally a reasonably weak median final result. Even with strengths at different components of San Francisco’s roster, FPI would not suppose a 7-point unfold on the street is warranted. — Walder
FPI prediction: 49ers by 4.8
What’s your finest guess for Week 1?
Schatz: Houston +8 vs. Indianapolis. Houston is notably mediocre this season. I imply that in the perfect mild, as mediocrity would not go 4-13. It goes 7-10. The Texans have loaded their roster with high quality rookies and affordable, however unexciting veterans. Soccer Outsiders projections aren’t enthusiastic about Frank Reich resuscitating Matt Ryan‘s profession, so we have got the complete AFC South projected as under common. That places these groups rather a lot nearer collectively than standard knowledge believes. I just like the Colts to win, however the Texans have a robust probability to cowl.
Fulghum: 49ers -7 at Bears. I’ll often be selecting on the Bears this season. On this explicit matchup, Justin Fields and the offense ought to wrestle enormously to maneuver the ball effectively in opposition to an elite 49ers protection that made it to the NFC Championship a season in the past. Kyle Shanahan should not have any downside scheming in opposition to a Bears protection that has been declining for a few years and now not has Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. This can be a huge mismatch within the trenches on either side of the ball, and that ought to mitigate any QB considerations you could have about Lance. The 49ers ought to dominate this sport.
Walder: Kyle Pitts beneath 58.5 receiving yards (-101). Our ESPN Analytics projection places Pitts’ quantity at 49.6, totally acknowledging that he is clearly the highest receiving possibility on the staff and assuming he’ll keep the 20% goal share he recorded final yr. The issue? So far as the mannequin sees it, there simply aren’t going to be a ton of yards to go round with Marcus Mariota on the helm, and that dampens Pitts’ projection. As well as, relative to his friends, Pitts runs numerous crossing routes — that are much less efficient in opposition to two-man protection, which the Saints ran greater than another staff by a mile final season. Two-man will not be as simple to deploy in opposition to Mariota, who’s extra cellular than Ryan, but it surely’s nonetheless a light-weight knock in opposition to Pitts on this sport.
Moody: Brandon Aiyuk over 47.5 receiving yards (-119). It was wonderful when Aiyuk totally grasped Shanahan’s offensive scheme through the second half of final season. In 5 of the final 10 video games, Aiyuk completed with 85 or extra yards. He had 16 receptions of 20 yards or extra and averaged 6.7 yards after the catch. Aiyuk’s 9.8 aDOT (common depth of goal) was the very best amongst 49ers receivers. This makes him a superb match with Lance, whose arm power may be very able to attacking defenses deep. Moreover, Aiyuk was hailed as having the perfect rapport with Lance throughout coaching camp. The receiver is properly positioned to exceed this prop.
Marks: Ravens -1 and Colts -1 in teaser. A wholesome Ravens squad to start out the season is harmful, on either side of the ball, and the Jets with Joe Flacco makes this a recipe for catastrophe. John Harbaugh is aware of Flacco properly, so anticipate a protracted day for Joe behind a subpar offensive line. Lamar Jackson and his flock ought to be capable to rating at will. Matty Ice is a big enchancment on the QB place for a Colts offense that runs via Jonathan Taylor (he’ll arrange play motion completely for Ryan). The Colts protection is without doubt one of the most underrated items coming into the season. They’ve the potential to rank within the prime 5. Houston did little or no to offer Davis Mills with extra weapons.
Snellings: Ravens -7 at Jets. This looks as if stealing cash, even with the Ravens on the street. Lamar and the Ravens come into this season with a ton to show and big chips on their shoulders. They’re coming off what simply seemed to be a playoff season earlier than accidents broke them down, they usually needed to watch one in all their division mates leapfrog all of them the way in which to the Tremendous Bowl. Jackson goes to attempt to placed on a present all season in a contract yr. The Ravens are wholesome and able to present that they deserve the highest spot within the North. And so they’re dealing with a Jets staff lacking their prime quarterback and their finest offensive linemen, helmed by an previous and stationary Flacco. This simply appears like a blowout ready to occur.
What’s your favourite participant prop?
Fulghum: David Montgomery beneath 52.5 speeding yards (-142). As talked about above, the 49ers protection ought to dominate the woeful Bears OL on the level of assault. That alone goes to considerably hinder Montgomery’s effectivity. Then there’s the query of quantity. As a 7-point underdog, Montgomery might rapidly be taking a look at a adverse sport script that requires the Bears to play catch-up for many of the sport. And if you happen to imagine that Khalil Herbert is a proficient praise, he too might steal snaps from Montgomery, who owned the most effective roles for quantity within the league final yr.
Fortenbaugh: Trey Lance over 38.5 speeding yards. No one schemes a greater speeding assault than 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Given San Francisco is dealing with one of many worst defensive strains within the NFL, anticipate a heavy dose of the bottom and pound from the 49ers on Sunday. Not solely would I anticipate a number of designed runs referred to as for Lance, however as a younger quarterback on the street in Week 1, do not be shocked if he decides to tuck and run ought to the chance current itself.
Walder: Donovan Peoples-Jones over 2.5 receptions (+136). My favourite guess is a prop (above), however why not throw one other in right here? Peoples-Jones averaged 2.4 receptions per sport final yr, when Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. have been absorbing targets at the least a few of the time. Now, he is the No. 2 wideout after Amari Cooper, solely combating off gamers like David Njoku and rookie David Bell. My projections put Peoples-Jones at 3.35 receptions in Week 1, a simple over given the plus cash.
Moody: Derrick Henry over 10.5 receiving yards (-101). Henry was on monitor to have a profession season as a receiver out of the backfield earlier than his foot damage final season. He averaged 19.2 receiving yards per sport. In Week 1 in opposition to the Giants, I would be shocked if Henry wasn’t extra concerned within the passing sport for a Titans staff with 351 out there targets.
Marks: Saquon Barkley over 29.5 receiving yards (-110). I am excited to see Brian Daboll’s new offense he has delivered to New York to assist resuscitate Daniel Jones. It can start and finish with Barkley, particularly within the passing sport. I anticipate Saquon to have over 70 receptions this season, and it begins on Sunday in opposition to the Titans. Hopefully you drafted him in your fantasy soccer staff!
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