NFL Week 3 betting notes

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By linda
NFL Week 3 betting notes
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Week 3 options 9 dwelling underdogs, which means that via three weeks, there have been 23 dwelling underdogs. That’s the most via three weeks because the 1970 merger. Residence underdogs have gone 8-5-1 ATS up to now this season.

The most important pattern up to now coming into Week 3 pertains to totals. Unders are hitting at a 68% clip this season, the very best underneath proportion via two weeks since 1996. Prime-time unders have gone 6-1 this season, and so they’ve hit at a 58% price over the previous three seasons.

Maybe essentially the most fascinating whole is in Tampa Bay, as Tom Brady and the Buccaneers host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The entire presently sits within the low 40s. In 4 earlier Rodgers-Brady conferences, the overall was no less than 53 every time with a median of 55.5. That’s the highest common whole in any head-to-head quarterback matchup previously 35 seasons (minimal three video games).

A few streaks are on the road this week. The Carolina Panthers have misplaced 9 consecutive video games, each outright and ATS. That’s one shy of the longest such streak within the Tremendous Bowl period (carried out twice beforehand). Final week, they misplaced as a favourite to the New York Giants after being an underdog a lot of the week. The Giants have now been underdogs in 16 straight video games, the longest energetic streak within the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-5), Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET

  • The Steelers are 44-24-3 towards the unfold as underdogs underneath coach Mike Tomlin (37-34 outright). Since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, the Steelers are the one workforce over .500 outright as an underdog. Since 2018, Pittsburgh is 20-7-2 ATS as an underdog.

  • Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its previous six video games as a favourite. Total, the Browns are 7-15 ATS as a favourite underneath coach Kevin Stefanski.

  • Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in division video games and 6-19 ATS in convention video games underneath Stefanski.

  • Over the previous 10 seasons, unders are 48-28-1 in Steelers’ street video games.

  • That is the primary time Pittsburgh has been an underdog in its first three video games since 1992 (began 3-0).

  • Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time video games over the earlier 4 seasons (.584), together with 6-1 this season.

  • Groups favored between 4-7 factors are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS because the begin of final season (.383). Residence favorites of 4-7 factors are 16-37 ATS over the previous two seasons (.302).

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Carolina has misplaced 9 straight video games towards the unfold, tied for the second-longest streak by any workforce previously 20 seasons, second to the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders, who misplaced 10 straight.

  • The Panthers have misplaced all 9 of these video games outright. Solely two groups within the Tremendous Bowl period have misplaced 10 straight video games each outright and ATS — the 1981 Baltimore Colts and the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders, who each misplaced precisely 10.

  • Since 2016, New Orleans is 35-15 ATS on the street (.700), the most effective mark within the NFL in that span. It’s 19-9 ATS as a street favourite in that span.

  • Since 2015, New Orleans is 29-15 ATS towards division opponents. Since 2016, Carolina is 12-24 ATS towards division opponents.

  • Since 2010, groups which might be 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS towards groups which have beforehand received a sport.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Chicago was 3-0 ATS as a house favourite final season. It is the second time Justin Fields will probably be a favourite in his thirteenth NFL begin (1-0 ATS).

  • Houston is 2-0 ATS this season and is 5-1 ATS in its previous six video games.

  • That is Davis Mills‘ 14th profession begin. He was no less than a six-point underdog in every of his first 13 begins till this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS as a house underdog underneath coach Frank Reich.

  • Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its previous 4 video games. QB Matt Ryan is 0-5-1 ATS in his previous six begins.

  • Kansas Metropolis is 47-25-1 ATS on the street underneath coach Andy Reid (.653), the most effective mark within the NFL in that span.

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Since Josh Allen‘s second season (2019), Buffalo is 17-7-1 ATS on the street, the second-best mark within the NFL after Arizona.

  • Allen is 19-6-2 ATS in his previous 27 begins, together with 5-0-1 his previous six begins.

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 14-8-1 ATS in his profession, together with 9-3 ATS at dwelling.

  • Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS in its previous eight division video games. Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its previous 15 division video games.

  • The present whole of 53.5 is by far the very best in any Buffalo-Miami assembly within the earlier 35 seasons (earlier excessive: 48.5 carried out in 2021 and 1992).

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS as Lions coach as an underdog of no less than 4 factors.

  • Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its previous eight convention video games.

  • Minnesota has coated the unfold the previous 4 occasions it has been a favourite (1-0 this season).

  • Over the previous 10 seasons, Minnesota is a league-best 41-21-2 ATS after a loss (.661).

  • Groups favored between 4-7 factors are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS because the begin of final season (.383). Residence favorites of 4-7 factors are 16-37 ATS over the previous two seasons (.302).

  • The present whole of 53.5 matches the very best in any Detroit sport previously 35 seasons, which has occurred 4 occasions beforehand, most lately in 2020.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Invoice Belichick is 15-5 ATS and 12-8 outright as a house underdog with New England. Out of 46 coaches to be dwelling underdogs no less than 20 occasions within the Tremendous Bowl period, together with playoffs, his 15-5 ATS mark is the most effective. Total, Belichick is 51-27-1 ATS as an underdog with New England.

  • Belichick is 6-1 ATS towards Ravens coach John Harbaugh within the common season (0-4 ATS in playoffs).

  • Lamar Jackson is 16-7-2 ATS in his profession on the street.

  • Since 2019, Baltimore is 11-2-1 ATS when the road is between +3 and -3.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Cincinnati is the third workforce 0-2 or worse previously 25 seasons to be a street favourite of no less than 4 factors (first since 2019 Washington at Miami). The earlier two are 2-0 straight up and 1-1 ATS.

  • The Jets are 1-5 ATS of their previous six video games as a house underdog (0-6 outright). The final time they received outright as dwelling underdog was in Week 8 of final season, once they upset Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog.

  • Unders are 17-8 in coach Zac Taylor street video games.

  • The Jets are 1-13 outright and 2-12 ATS of their earlier 14 September video games, although they received final week.

  • Since 2010, groups which might be 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS towards groups which have beforehand received a sport.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Titans coach Mike Vrabel is 8-4 ATS and outright as a house underdog, and he was 3-0 outright final season.

  • Since 2017, Las Vegas is 1-8-1 ATS as a street favourite and 1-5 since transferring to Las Vegas.

  • Las Vegas is 1-6 ATS as a favourite because the begin of final season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Carson Wentz is 5-1 ATS in his previous six video games as an underdog.

  • Since 2016, Washington is 6-12 ATS at dwelling in division video games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

  • Los Angeles has coated 9 straight conferences (since 2010).

  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its previous 5 street video games.

  • Los Angeles’ earlier eight September video games have gone underneath the overall.

  • QB Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS as no less than a seven-point dwelling favourite.

  • QB Trevor Lawrence is 2-7 ATS on the street.

  • Groups favored between 4-7 factors are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS because the begin of final season (.383). Residence favorites of 4-7 factors are 16-37 ATS over the previous two seasons (.302).

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • Rams coach Sean McVay is 10-1 outright and ATS towards Arizona, together with playoffs, and 6-1 ATS towards Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Arizona is 19-9-1 ATS as an underdog underneath Kingsbury, going 7-1 ATS because the begin of final season.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its previous 5 video games as a street favourite.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • Atlanta is 5-0 outright and ATS in street video games underneath coach Arthur Smith when it isn’t no less than a seven-point underdog.

  • Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is 15-4 ATS in his previous 19 video games with out Russell Wilson.

  • QB Geno Smith is 9-1 ATS in his previous 10 begins and 22-14 ATS in his profession.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • The present over/underneath of 41 is tied for the second lowest in any Aaron Rodgers begin previous to December. His solely decrease whole got here in his first profession begin in 2008. It is the lowest September/October whole in a Tom Brady begin since 2010. In 4 prior conferences between Brady and Rodgers, the over/underneath was no less than 53 each time with a median of 55.5, which is the very best common in any head-to-head quarterback matchup previously 35 seasons.

  • Brady is 3-1 ATS towards Rodgers, overlaying the previous three conferences (together with playoffs). Unders are 3-1 of their matchups.

  • Inexperienced Bay is 33-18 ATS (.647) underneath coach Matt LaFleur, the most effective mark within the NFL in that span. Brady is 188-124-6 ATS (.602) in his profession, the second-best mark within the Tremendous Bowl period amongst 89 quarterbacks to make 100 begins.

  • Inexperienced Bay is 9-3 ATS as an underdog underneath LaFleur, together with 4-1 ATS because the begin of final season.

  • Inexperienced Bay is 0-4 ATS in its previous 4 street video games.

  • Tampa Bay has coated 4 straight video games when the road is between +3 and -3.

  • Tampa Bay is 8-2 ATS in its previous 10 video games as a house favourite and 6-1 ATS in his previous seven video games in that function.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET

  • The lookahead line was Denver -3. It opened at 2.5 after Sunday’s video games (when Trey Lance was injured), and now San Francisco is favored.

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 13-16-2 ATS as a favourite and 13-3 ATS as an underdog.

  • Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is 15-24-2 ATS as a favourite.

  • Denver has coated three straight as a house underdog. For the reason that 1970 merger, Denver is 55-32-2 ATS as a house underdog. QB Russell Wilson is 7-3 ATS as a house underdog.

  • Shanahan is 13-7-1 ATS in nonconference video games.

  • Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time video games over the previous 4 seasons (.584), together with 6-1 this season. Over the previous three seasons, dwelling underdogs are 27-19 ATS in prime-time video games.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

  • Final season, Dallas was 8-1 ATS on the street, 6-0 ATS in division video games and 4-0 ATS with additional relaxation.

  • Dallas is 8-2 ATS towards New York since 2017.

  • Cooper Rush is 2-0 outright as a starter in his profession, each as no less than a four-point underdog.

  • New York is 0-3 ATS as a favourite since 2020 and 4-10-1 ATs in its previous 15 video games as a favourite. Final week, the Giants closed as an underdog after being favored a lot of the week towards Carolina.

  • Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time video games over the previous 4 seasons (.584), together with 6-1 this season.

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