When you understand how to determine the substance of a school football team, you can usually predict an unexpected loss. It truly is more difficult to predict precisely when it will happen. When Stanford upset Southern California 24-23 the previous Saturday (10-6-07), many people were surprised. I was not.
Number 2-ranked USC was an excellent 4-0 coming into the game together and enjoyed five straight periods of national top-4 coatings, BCS bowl appearances, and Pac 10 Conference headings. Stanford was a 6-touchdown underdog, had lost 41-3 at your home to Arizona State weekly earlier, had lost to be able to USC 42-0 a year ago, and also finished last year with a terrible 1-11 record.
So what took place? Study these three units of figures to identify several clues. The first is the prior week’s AP Top 25 Survey; the second is Sagarin’s mathematical scores of a team’s performance energy against shared opponents; and the third is Sagarin’s numerical ratings of a team’s plan strength.
The AP Survey comprises 65 media sorts who follow and review college football clubs. Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, who produces the rare metal standard among rating expert services. Sagarin’s ratings represent the standard schedule difficulty faced by each team, taking into account often the rating of the opponent along with the game’s location.
AP Major 25 Poll – Sagarin Rating – Schedule Status
1) LSU 1) LSU 1) Washington
2) El monte, ca 2) Southern California 2) Notre Dame
3) California 3) Ohio State 3) Colorado state State
4) Ohio Status 4) Oklahoma 4) Stanford
5) Wisconsin, 5) Colorado, 5) Marshall
6) Sth Florida 6) South Fl 6) Tennessee
7) Celtics College 7) West California 7) Mississippi
8) Kentucky, 8) Arizona State, 8) North Carolina
9) Florida 9) Florida 9) Colorado
10) Oklahoma, 10) Auburn, 10) AA Sam Houston
11) South Carolina, 11) Oregon, 11) Auburn
12) Georgia, 12) UCLA, 12) Akron
13) West Virginia 13) Atlanta 13) Duke
14) Or 14) Cincinnati 14) Distance Carolina
15) Virginia Support 15) Boston College 15) LA-Monroe
16) Hawaii 16) Kentucky 16) Florida Foreign
17) Missouri 17) Sc 17) Florida State
18) Arizona State 18) Missouri 18) Syracuse
19) Mississippi 19) Kansas State 19) UCLA
20) Cincinnati 20) Connecticut 20) Brigham Small
21) Rutgers 21) Fl State 21) Oregon
22) Clemson 22) Boise Status 22) San Diego State
23) Purdue 23) Purdue 23) Washington State
24) Kansas State 24) Wisconsin 24) Wake Forest
25) Nebraska, 25) Texas, 25) Minnesota (Ohio)
How could Stanford aggrieved USC? Well, for one thing, while USC has far more natural talent, its talent did not highlight for the game. USC’s natural talent was “at” the game and not “in” the game.
USC was 4-0 and ranked Number 2 going into the game, and Stanford was 1-3 and ranked No. 83. Still, Stanford had played the 4th most challenging schedule in the nation before the Cardinal arrived at USC as the visiting team. USC had played the thirty-eighth most demanding schedule.
You decide whether the issue is a factor or not. My answer is it was a factor. Certainly, USC did not think Stanford had been that tough of a challenger; the Trojans paid a considerable price by not being well prepared. Here is another example. I use said for weeks that will Wisconsin was overrated. The particular Badgers were 5-0 and also ranked No. 5 entering Illinois, while the Illini have been unranked but upset Wisconsin 31-26.
Wisconsin may have been positioned as No. 5, but its Sagarin rating was No. 24, and the Badgers had played the 90th most demanding schedule. Sagarin’s rating for Illinois was not a. 40, but the Illini got played the 39th most demanding schedule.
Still not confident? Kentucky was 5-0 and also ranked No. 8 entering South Carolina and lost to the Gamecocks 38-23.
Kentucky got a Sagarin rating regarding No. 16 and had played out the 92nd most arduous plan. South Carolina was 4-1, ranked No. 11, got a Sagarin rating regarding No. 17 and had played out the 47th most arduous plan.
In a clash of unbeaten, Purdue was 5-0, positioned No. 23 and put the Ohio State Buckeyes who beat them 23-7. Sagarin’s rating for Purdue was also No. Twenty-three and the Boilermakers had played out the 124th most arduous plan. There are only 119 Split 1-A schools.
Ohio Express was also 5-0, ranked No. 4 using a Sagarin rating of Number 3 and had played the particular 60th most demanding schedule.
Several fans and pundits set no faith in Sagarin. I put a lot of credit in the Sagarin’s team scores and schedule rank, and after this, you know why. I can do some simple accuracy predictions when a crew is overrated, and thanks for an unexpected loss.
Rettighed © 2007 Ed Bagley
Ed Bagley’s Blog lists original articles with Research and Commentary on a few Subjects: Sports, Movie Evaluations, Lessons in Life, Jobs in addition to Careers, and Internet Marketing. My very own intention is to inform, train, delight and motivate the reader.
Read my 13 Washington Husky articles like “Meet the Nation’s Most Statistically Incredible Team – Often the University of Washington Huskies”, “Anatomy of a Team ever-increasing: Washington Will Get Over Freshmanitis and Really Thrive” and “College Football Mayhem: Flagrant Helmet-to-Helmet Shots Need to Stop Previous to Someone Gets Killed”.
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