You have already given yourself an “edge” over those who bet on or offer odds on other sports by selecting tennis as your preferred sport for betting. However, you must first understand two fundamental principles to use this “edge” to make money consistently; then, use mathematics to your advantage. Learn the best info about atp prediction.
Table of Contents
Principle No. 1
Placing a tennis bet (or any bet) with a “traditional” bookmaker is sheer folly. The axiom “You can’t beat the bookie” is self-evident; you cannot beat the bookie over time. This is because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favor of the bookmaker. Everyone understands (or should understand) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” over the punter is required for him to make a profit and stay in business.
Computer technology has spawned a new type of gambling known as “exchange betting” or “matched betting.” There is no bookie to beat with “betting exchanges”; in other words, there is no middleman. Every punter places a wager against another punter or punters somewhere in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet on a player or team to win and a “lay” bet on a player or team to lose. As a result, any punter can choose to be a regular bettor or a bookmaker.
With exchange betting, the odds are set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they are willing to place bets (if they wish to act as an ordinary bettor) or offers of odds at which they are ready to lay bets (if they want to act as a bookmaker).
As “back” bettors gradually reduce their requested odds and “lay” bettors increase their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting website matches all back bets with all lay bets when they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then automatically credited with their winnings a few seconds after the event ends, based on its outcome.
The CThetechnology required to provide such a “fair” betting service must be paid for somehow. This payment is made in the form of a commission on the net winnings of the punter on an event (or “market”). In other words, the commission is only charged on the difference between winnings and losses on the same event.
This betting system is as close to a fair betting environment as possible.
However, there are very few betting exchanges, possibly due to the complexity and cost of exchange betting software. Betfair is the market leader in exchange betting websites, accounting for roughly 90% of the market at the time of writing. The Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook, and the World Bet Exchange are among the others (WBX). Betfair is the most popular because it was the first to provide this “perfectly fair” betting environment and is known for its accuracy and speed.
Principle No. 2
So, what gives tennis betting an “edge” over other sports betting? Unfortunately, even those who bet on tennis regularly often overlook the simple answer. And if you’ve never bet on tennis, you almost certainly aren’t aware of the importance of the tennis scoring system in betting.
Consider the fundamental difference between the tennis scoring system and almost any other sport.
In other sports and games, the trailing player or team must make up the points difference by winning one point for each lost to catch up to the leader. Only then will they be able to move forward.? But, again, this appears to be self-evident.
However, in tennis, the trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0. (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team can then win the second set by the slimmest of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the stage by only a few points (or even fewer points than the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).
When the trailing player or team wins the second set, the two sides are suddenly tied, even though one player or group may have won many more points than the opponents.
This anomaly frequently has a profound psychological effect on one or both sides, influencing how they play for the next few minutes and, as a result, the betting odds requested and offered by punters on the match. This, however, is a different aspect of tennis betting that may be covered in another article. So instead, this article discusses the mathematical aspects of tennis betting and how to use this knowledge to win money.
Tennis Betting Strategies
How can you use these two fundamental principles to your advantage when placing tennis bets now that you know them?
The key is not simply to be a “backer” or a “layer” betting on the outcome of an event. If you do this, you will lose money over time because there is always a slight difference between the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there has to be, or no one would offer odds, and there would be no betting at all. When you factor in the commission you pay on your net winnings, you have a mathematical “edge” against you (although it is not as great as with conventional bookmakers).
The key to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer,” but at different times throughout the event. This is another feature distinguishing the exchange betting website from the traditional bookie. In addition, you can place a back or lay bet at the betting exchange at any time during the event until the last second or point. This is referred to as “in-play” betting.
Because in-play betting is permitted, the odds for each opposing side change as the event progresses, based on the probability (as perceived by the punters) of either one side or the other winning. The trick is to back one side at specific odds and later lay that side (or back the other side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds shift in your favor. If you accomplish this, you will win your bet regardless of the event’s outcome– an actual “win-win” situation.
Why should you bet on tennis instead of other sports?
Aside from principle #2, tennis is ideal for such “swing” betting because the odds change after each point is played. As a result, there are numerous small swings to one side and then to the other. This does not occur in soccer, for example, because goals are so rare, and a plan shifts the advantage to the scoring side abruptly and dramatically.
Furthermore, a tennis match can only have one of two outcomes; there is no draw or tie, and only one of two players or teams can win. In horse racing, for example, the winner can be chosen from many competitors.
The more possible outcomes there are to consider, the more difficult it is to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the two most popular betting sports, most likely due to historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, as more and more punters discover that betting on tennis is more accessible than betting on any other sport.)
Is it better to bet “in-play” or “pre-event”?
Now that you’ve hopefully grasped the fundamentals of exchange betting and the quirks of tennis scoring, it’s time to get into the specifics of how to win at tennis betting.
It was previously stated that the key to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer,” but at different points during the event, placing bets at other times as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favor. This is possible with both “in-play” and “pre-event” betting.
Scalping is a technique used with in-play betting. Scalping, as the name implies, entails making a small profit by backing or laying at precisely the right time when the odds shift slightly in your favor, such as when one player scores two or three consecutive points and then repeating the process.
The most significant disadvantage of scalping is that it is time-consuming and stressful on both the mental and physical levels. Not only must you pay full attention to what is happening during the match via live video broadcast, but you must also catch precisely the right moments to bet, which is made impossible by the exchange betting software’s 5-second delay between the time you place the bet and the time it is accepted.
WWE won’t go into detail about this because, as previously stated, this article is about winning through mathematics, not sweat. The math aspect involves betting before the event rather than during it. That is, betting before the event.
Mathematics does not deceive!
There are a few tennis betting “systems,” some of which are entirely manual and others that rely on software programs, some of which are highly complex. But, according to the writer’s (a mathematician’s) research, they all require the bettor’s input of a “probability factor” at some point. This probability factor is typically the odds at which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, resulting in the previously mentioned “win-win” scenario.
So, how do you calculate the probability factor’s value? That, dear reader, is the crux of the issue, the linchpin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.
This probability factor, it appears, has had to be determined by the sheer experience of a few seasoned professional gamblers or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. So surprisingly, many bettors lose or don’t win as much as they could because they don’t know the EXACT value required to optimize their bets!
Accuracy is critical when determining the probability factor to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the Internet for a tool to calculate it turned up nothing. For lack of a better name, the author created one that encompasses all aspects of exchange betting and the tennis scoring system’s peculiarities, dubbed the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator.
The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides; It has allowed the writer to consistently profit more than 10% from tennis betting since Wimbledon in 2009.
In a parallel test, the author bbetson “gut feelings” in sufficient numbers to establish a trend. It resulted in a 10% decrease in working capital (or “bank”).
Other tests were conducted by betting on different sports with small odds swings, such as American Football, snooker, and darts, using the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator (very long matches only, otherwise, the swings are too large). Unfortunately, the results here barely covered the winning commissions; thus, it is not worthwhile.
The particular mathematical formula or algorithm (which is very complex) discussed here appears to work well only in conjunction with the unique tennis scoring system.
Conclusion
As a scientist, the author believes that winning at sports betting consistently over time is only possible if the following factors are present:
1. An exchange betting website, rather than a traditional bone, is used. (Beware of any sites that appear in search engine results for “exchange betting” and claim to offer exchange betting! Check that their software allows you to back and lay bets at any odds you want against other punters, not the house. If in doubt, make sure their website looks similar to Betfair’s.)
AND
Tennis is a sport because of its unique scoring system.
AND
3(a) You learn about and gain experience with in-play betting and are willing to spend nearly all of your time glued to a computer screen while following each match, sometimes more than one simultaneously
OR
3(b) You use software that tells you precisely the odds to request and offer and the stakes to place in pre-event betting in minutes, allowing you to do your everyday business.
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