WNBA Future Energy Rankings: Predicting finest, worst franchises

Which WNBA groups have the perfect outlook over the subsequent three seasons?

We have answered the NBA model of that query with our Future Energy Rankings, which consider groups on the idea of 5 classes — gamers, administration, cap area, market and draft picks — to foretell which groups are trending upward or downward within the not-so-distant future.

For the primary time, our WNBA writers have undertaken the identical train, with a slight tweak. Not like the NBA Future Power Rankings, that are based mostly on a components that weights scores within the 5 classes, within the WNBA model they’re merely used as explanations of how we arrived at our total 1-12 rating.

WNBA groups have by no means needed to be extra conscientious of how they handle their wage cap and future draft picks, which makes this a becoming time to start Future Energy Rankings for the league. The present collective bargaining settlement signed in 2020 ushered in an period of elevated participant motion, however as previous contracts have cycled off the books, cap area has turn out to be extra treasured than ever.

On the identical time, trades reshuffled the order of this yr’s WNBA draft, with two contenders (the Chicago Sky and Washington Mystics) including picks final offseason that landed within the prime 5.

With that in thoughts, let’s take a look at the WNBA’s prime contenders throughout the 2023-25 timeframe.

Our unanimous No. 1 selection, the Aces look poised to contend for added championships after bringing dwelling the primary in franchise historical past. Las Vegas’ core gamers — Chelsea Gray, Dearica Hamby, Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young — are all underneath contract via subsequent season, with all 5 taking lower than they might have probably commanded as free brokers.

With 5 gamers making no less than $165,000 subsequent season, the Aces will proceed to should scrimp on their bench. Nonetheless, we belief our top-ranked administration staff to search out options, significantly with the potential for attracting gamers chasing rings to a market additionally ranked first. — Pelton

Admittedly, so much is determined by the well being of Elena Delle Donne. However she obtained via the 2022 season efficiently sufficient with strategic relaxation. Now 33, she has mentioned she hopes to have no less than a couple of extra years taking part in. It is unsure how lengthy Mike Thibault will keep as coach, however he is anticipated to get replaced by his son, longtime assistant Eric Thibault, whereas remaining as normal supervisor. So the mind belief that has stored the Mystics aggressive needs to be in place some time longer.

Washington did effectively in choosing heart/ahead Shakira Austin within the 2022 draft, and the Mystics have one other lottery decide (by way of commerce) within the 2023 draft. — Voepel

The Solar have made the playoffs in all however the first yr of coach/normal supervisor Curt Miller’s tenure, which started in 2016. There is not any motive to suppose they will not be one of many title contenders once more in 2023, with most of their core underneath contract. They could have a difficulty retaining Sixth Participant of the 12 months Brionna Jones, although.

Star ahead Jonquel Jones turns into a free agent in 2024, and that is when the present window for the Solar might be closing. Miller acknowledges that there’s all the time some battle carrying each the coach/GM hats relating to the “win now” vs. “plan for the longer term” mentalities. — Voepel

It has been 20 years and lots of water underneath the bridge since New York was final within the WNBA Finals in 2002. Now the Liberty are underneath new possession, play in Brooklyn and have a younger guard in Sabrina Ionescu to construct round. However the Liberty do not but have the expertise to be a championship staff.

That might change with trades and free company — might Syracuse native Breanna Stewart find yourself again in her dwelling state? — and there is each indication that Liberty administration desires the franchise to return to the place it was within the WNBA’s early years. — Voepel

The change in possession in 2021, the addition of latest coach Tanisha Wright and the arrival of normal supervisor Dan Padover all have had a rejuvenating impression on Atlanta. The Dream are a younger staff, led by 2022 Rookie of the 12 months Rhyne Howard, with lots of cap room to make strikes for 2023 and past.

The enlargement Dream reached the playoffs six of their first eight seasons, making three journeys to the WNBA Finals. However they’ve made the postseason simply twice prior to now seven years, falling quick the previous 4 seasons in a row. This previous 14-22 season confirmed progress and a few stability, and that’s one thing to construct on. — Voepel

Essentially the most tough groups to rank in FPR are these with a marquee free agent whose determination will have an effect on the franchise’s fortunes for years to come back. Seattle and Breanna Stewart match the invoice. If Stewart returns and the Storm can efficiently exchange now-retired Sue Fowl with some extent guard by way of free company, they will stay contenders behind the duo of Stewart and fellow All-Star Jewell Loyd.

Even when Stewart departs — or decides to not play within the WNBA subsequent season due to the league’s prioritization rule — Seattle is unlikely to tumble to the underside of the standings. The franchise obtained excessive marks for each market (rating third) and administration (fourth), testomony to a monitor report of success, albeit all of it with Fowl on the roster. — Pelton

Just like the Storm, the Lynx are hoping to increase a profitable run with out a future Corridor of Famer. Sylvia Fowles was the final hyperlink on the court docket to Minnesota’s dynasty, leaving head coach and GM Cheryl Reeve (the first motive for our second-highest administration rating) to retool the roster round budding star Napheesa Collier.

Though the Lynx remained a playoff staff till this previous season, with Collier absent practically the complete method after giving beginning, Minnesota must discover a long-term possibility at level guard after biking via choices quickly the previous two years. If that occurs, the Lynx might shortly return to competition. — Pelton

The Sky shocked themselves a bit in a great way by successful the WNBA title in 2021, and in a nasty method by dropping their semifinal sequence this yr. Relying on free company and different strikes, the 2023 Sky might look fairly much like 2022 — or they might look actually completely different.

How for much longer will Candace Parker play? Will Courtney Vandersloot stick with the one WNBA franchise she has performed with? Sky coach and normal supervisor James Wade faces a few of the identical questions different groups do in constructing for the longer term whereas additionally making an attempt to benefit from the potential present window to win. — Voepel

After amassing a treasure chest of first-round picks throughout their rebuild, the Wings now discover themselves at a key second as most of these rookie contracts start to run out. Dallas prolonged All-Star guard Arike Ogunbowale for the supermax, however truly performed higher with out her when she was injured towards the tip of the common season and starting of the playoffs.

Teaira McCowan‘s dominance within the paint largely fueled that late surge, and the middle is now certainly one of key restricted free brokers for the Wings together with productive guard Marina Mabrey. Given probably raises for each gamers, Dallas not scores as effectively by way of future cap area. — Pelton

The Wings additionally should discover a new coach after deciding to not train an possibility on the ultimate season of Vickie Johnson’s contract regardless of Johnson main the staff to back-to-back playoff appearances.

Since Diana Taurasi sat out the 2012 season, giving Phoenix the No. 1 decide the next yr, the Mercury have been maybe the WNBA’s most persistently efficiently franchise. Phoenix managed to increase a 10-year playoff streak, however nonetheless left a turbulent season with extra questions than solutions. Will Taurasi return forward of a season by which she’ll flip 41? And have we seen the final of Skylar Diggins-Smith in a Mercury uniform?

Tragically, the largest query of all is when Brittney Griner is perhaps free of being detained in Russia. Griner’s absence loomed over a 2022 marketing campaign that did not go to plan in Phoenix. We’ll see whether or not the Mercury can get again on monitor with out the advantage of this yr’s first-round decide, which might have been No. 5 total. — Pelton

The Fever want a No. 1 decide within the worst method, and the lottery odds for the 2023 draft favor them. However that alone will not be practically sufficient: They should make a smart move on a brand new coach, after which work out how a lot of their younger core they need to hold.

The dangerous in regards to the Fever is apparent: They received simply 5 video games this season and haven’t been to the playoffs since 2016. However there are some positives, just like the efficiency of rookie NaLyssa Smith this yr and the possibility for a reset by way of their teaching philosophy. — Voepel

As soon as the WNBA’s preeminent franchise, the Sparks are in an unsure state after two years within the lottery value Derek Fisher his twin roles as head coach and GM. Making issues worse, Los Angeles has needed to see stars Parker and Grey win titles the final two years after departing in free company. Worse but, the Sparks will not get a lottery decide for his or her misplaced season, having traded it for Chennedy Carter final offseason.

There’s nonetheless expertise available in L.A., beginning with Nneka Ogwumike, rightfully chosen to the All-WNBA second staff. Ogwumike, who has performed her total profession with the Sparks, pledged after the season to return alongside sister Chiney. However Los Angeles must nail the alternative (or replacements) for Fisher to improve our Eleventh-ranked administration staff. — Pelton

Alexa Philippou contributed to this report.