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The highest 4 seeds superior to the semifinals of the 2022 WNBA playoffs with relative ease, however the matchups and storylines that await within the subsequent spherical are hardly in need of intrigue.
The highest-seeded Las Vegas Aces and No. 4 seed Seattle Storm face off in a battle that includes seven former No. 1 general draft picks. The Aces are hungry to win the franchise’s first championship, which might make Becky Hammon the primary first-year coach to win a WNBA title since Van Chancellor in 1997, the league’s inaugural season. However Sue Bird and Tina Charles have lots to combat for, too, as Chook readies for retirement with 4 (and if issues go her means, 5) WNBA titles to her title, whereas Charles switched groups midseason in the hunt for her coveted first.
Contemporary off successful decisive Sport 3s within the first spherical, the No. 2 seed Chicago Sky and the third-seeded Connecticut Sun are hoping to hold that momentum into the semifinals, the place they will meet for the second straight yr and within the postseason for the third consecutive summer season. Behind Candace Parker, who has indicated this may very well be her ultimate season within the league, the defending champion Sky need to turn out to be the primary WNBA workforce to repeat since 2001-02. The Solar — the W franchise with essentially the most playoff wins (33) however no title — hope to advance to their second Finals in 4 seasons earlier than their championship window diminishes.
The Sky swept the Solar within the common season (4-0) with a 4.5-point common margin of victory, whereas the Aces had a 3-1 edge this summer season in conferences versus the Storm, with a mean margin of victory throughout all 4 video games coming in at 9.5.
ESPN’s M.A. Voepel, Alexa Philippou and Kevin Pelton reply the largest questions that’ll decide the semifinals and predict which groups will attain the WNBA Finals.
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Pelton: Jewell Loyd. Her two video games in opposition to the Aces within the season’s ultimate week — one level at residence; a career-high 38 in Las Vegas — replicate the extremes of Loyd’s potential efficiency. With this collection more likely to be determined in late-game conditions, the Storm will want the Loyd we noticed pull out Sport 1 vs. Washington by scoring 12 of her workforce’s factors in a row down the stretch.
Philippou: Loyd is the clear X issue, however I am going to throw in A’ja Wilson, too. The 2020 MVP (and a front-runner for the award this yr) had a disappointing begin to the playoffs, going 2-for-11 from the sector in Sport 1 in opposition to the Mercury earlier than rebounding with a extra attribute 7-for-9 outing within the subsequent sport. For the Aces to make their second Finals look in three seasons, little question Wilson’s fingerprints should be everywhere in the court docket, each offensively and defensively.
Voepel: My preliminary thought is the Aces, nevertheless it’s maybe a special trio than we might have chosen earlier within the season: Chelsea Gray, who has elevated to tie for the workforce lead in scoring within the playoffs, Kelsey Plum and Wilson, who’s doing her typical MVP candidate stuff. However that leaves out Jackie Young, so possibly we give the Aces the moniker of “Finest Quartet” and listing Chicago’s Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper and Courtney Vandersloot as a extra particular Massive Three.
The nice Leon Barmore, legendary coach of Louisiana Tech, as soon as mentioned that in case you gave him three actually good gamers, he might win lots of video games no matter how good the opposite two had been. I feel that may be true of any of the semifinalists’ prime three, however having an elite center-forward, a dynamic wing and a spectacular level guard is a good components for the Sky.
Pelton: Adjusting for opposition, I might go along with Seattle’s group of Loyd, Chook and Breanna Stewart. They needed to be at their greatest to brush the Washington Mystics, together with Chook improbably posting her best game score ever in a playoff game with 18 factors and 10 assists throughout her ultimate postseason and Stewart coming inside two assists of her first profession triple-double.
Philippou: Pelton’s proper in that Seattle’s Massive Three confronted the hardest competitors, however I am going to nonetheless go along with what we’ll name the Vegas Backcourt Massive Three of Plum, Grey and Younger. As Voepel alluded to, Grey is not sometimes considered in any “Massive Three” and was the one Vegas starter to not get an All-Star bid final month. However she has been enjoying at an otherworldly degree in current weeks, hitting 20 factors in 5 of her previous eight outings — together with a career-high 33 in opposition to the Storm of their regular-season finale — and a minimum of 15 in all however one. Furthermore, she has shot 10-for-13 on 3-pointers whereas averaging 6.0 assists to start out the postseason. If Grey maintains this degree of play, and Plum and Younger proceed to do their factor alongside her within the backcourt, Vegas might very effectively minimize down the nets subsequent month for the primary time in franchise historical past.
Voepel: The Solar play high-level protection and rebound the ball effectively, like they did within the second half of Sport 3 in opposition to the Wings. The sport was shut within the first half after which Alyssa Thomas just about instructed her teammates to get with it, they usually responded. They pressured turnovers, contested pictures and appeared to wear down the Wings. Coach Curt Miller mentioned that if there’s one factor that often can carry the Solar by means of within the hardest video games, it is protection. Contemplating how good the Sky’s offense is, this might be a really troublesome check.
Philippou: Voepel is spot-on concerning the Solar’s identification. I would just add they will additionally want their perimeter gamers to step up. Courtney Williams (5.7 PPG, 30.8% capturing within the playoffs) struggled within the Dallas collection, however Natisha Hiedeman and, off the bench, DiJonai Carrington helped make up for that, plus DeWanna Bonner had an enormous momentum-shifting run in Sport 3. Some mixture of two of these 4 should be on any given night time to assist take strain off the bigs inside. As at all times, making certain they’ll get Jonquel Jones sufficient touches might be crucial for the Solar, too.
Pelton: If the Solar get some stops. Remarkably, Chicago shot 55.5% from the sector in a 4-0 collection sweep of Connecticut. No different workforce shot higher than 47.5% in opposition to the Solar. In that context, it is wonderful Connecticut managed to remain shut in all 4 video games, with three of them determined by 4 factors or fewer. It is also fascinating as a result of that is the inverse of final yr’s playoff collection, when the Sky by no means shot higher than 50% in any of the 4 video games however nonetheless gained 3-1.
Pelton: The Storm keep scorching from 3-point vary — an apparent reply nevertheless it’s true. Las Vegas’ ups and downs this season had been largely a product of opponent’s 3-point capturing. The Aces went 6-8 when opponents hit a minimum of 35% of their 3s and are undefeated (18-0, together with the playoffs) after they’re below 33%. Seattle made a minimum of half of its 3-point makes an attempt in each video games of the sweep over Washington.
Philippou: Vegas reverts again to a few of its poor defensive habits. Becky Hammon steadily says she does not care as a lot about her workforce’s offensive output as its defensive effort and execution. If the Aces let up on that finish of the ground, the Storm are too savvy and skilled of a workforce to not make them pay. To try this, gamers except for Stewart should step up.
Voepel: The submit battles between these two groups might be riveting. However one of many greatest keys for the Storm might be in some way slowing the Aces’ perimeter energy. Las Vegas shredded Phoenix from behind the arc within the first spherical, however that was a decimated Mercury workforce. Seattle will look to the likes of Loyd, Gabby Williams and savvy vets Chook and Briann January to cease Plum, Grey and Younger from taking on. If Seattle is ready to restrict the Las Vegas guards sufficient, the Storm can win this collection. Due to Seattle’s franchise historical past, it will not essentially look like an upset if the Storm win the collection, though on paper it will be.
Keep in mind how epic the 2018 semifinal collection between Seattle and Phoenix felt? This feels the identical, and if it goes 5 video games like that one did, it is going to be a deal with for WNBA followers. Each groups might be enjoying with a ton of emotion. The Storm wish to preserve Chook’s profession going so long as potential and the Aces consider they’ve been on the point of a championship the previous two years however had been stopped quick (in 2020 by the Storm within the Finals and final yr by the Phoenix Mercury within the semifinals).
Philippou: Chicago will advance. It is laborious to miss the Sky’s 7-1 run in opposition to Connecticut courting to final season’s semifinal. Kahleah Copper mentioned Tuesday that the workforce “fell in love” with the model of itself it placed on show from Video games 2 and three of the primary spherical, and that there is not any going again now. That model featured each stellar offense and stifling protection, a mix that may as soon as extra be an excessive amount of for the Solar.
Voepel: I am going with Chicago. The Sky had been irritated by shedding Sport 1 to the New York Liberty at residence, however they’ve additionally used it to their benefit in how effectively they performed since. Chicago has been an enormous thorn within the Solar’s aspect of late, and that might proceed. Chicago’s offense has simply been an excessive amount of for Connecticut to beat as soon as to date this yr, so doing it thrice in a collection appears a bridge too far.
Pelton: There are two contrasting tendencies I am selecting between. As famous, the Sky swept the season collection, and better seeds that did so are 22-4 all time in playoff collection. (One of many 4 exceptions? Chicago beating Phoenix in final yr’s WNBA Finals.) On the similar time, the Solar had a a lot better level differential in the course of the common season, greater than three factors per sport higher than the Sky. That is the biggest benefit for a decrease seed in additional than twenty years. Level differential tends to be an excellent playoff predictor, so I am nervously sticking with Connecticut to determine the matchup.
Voepel: Wow, this one is so laborious. Las Vegas is the highest seed for a great purpose, and irrespective of the Mercury’s deficiencies, the Aces nonetheless ran them out of the sector in Sport 2. How will Las Vegas look per week later for its opener in opposition to Seattle? In all probability actually good. However it’s compelling simply how badly the Storm need this for Chook, and in addition for Charles, who has by no means gained a WNBA title. So, what the heck: I am rolling the cube a bit right here in opposition to the workforce from Vegas and going with the Storm.
Pelton: This matchup favors the Aces, whose depth of perimeter expertise checks the Storm defensively. Add in home-court benefit and I am taking Las Vegas to get again to the Finals after these two groups met there in 2020.
Philippou: The Aces went 3-1 within the common season in opposition to the Storm and gained these video games by a mean margin of roughly 9 factors. It is robust to see that script flipped within the postseason, for the explanations Pelton talked about, and since the Storm’s inconsistent depth provides them a slimmer margin for error. However I am going to predict it will take a decisive Sport 5 — which might be again in Vegas — for this collection to be determined.
Pelton: Las Vegas vs. Connecticut
Philippou: Las Vegas vs. Chicago
Voepel: Las Vegas vs. Chicago
Pelton: Las Vegas
Philippou: Las Vegas
Voepel: Chicago
Pelton: Kelsey Plum, Las Vegas
Philippou: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas
Voepel: Candace Parker, Chicago